435 Seats · Majority at 218
House of Representatives
Seat-level probabilistic forecasts derived from Bayesian fundamentals and aggregated polling, updated each day new polls are published.
D Majority Prob
—
D Projected Seats
—
R Majority Prob
—
R Projected Seats
—
Unconditional forecast — integrates over all possible election-day environments including national polling drift, polling error, and late-breaking events between now and November. See the Scenario Explorer to explore outcomes under a fixed environment.
Majority Probability Over Time
Projected Seat Range Over Time
All House Districts
| District | Incumbent | Rating | D Win Prob | R Win Prob | R avg r2p | 90% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading district data… | ||||||